Financials are the cleanest window into the market cycle.
Brokerages, exchanges, insurance companies, and fintech platforms reveal changes in liquidity, risk appetite, regulation, and wealth allocation before they appear in broad narratives.
Financials-first research on market cycles
Financial Cycle Research
An independent research journal by Garvin Guan, focused on financials, capital-market structure, and selective HK/US equity opportunities.
Market StructureTurnover
Financial BetaBrokers
Global GrowthAI / Space
Portfolio RuleThesis First
Core Views
What this site is trying to prove.
The best equity ideas need both a cycle and a company-specific wedge.
A strong ticker is not just a story. It needs a macro tailwind, measurable operating leverage, valuation asymmetry, and a clear reason why the market may be late.
HK and US opportunities should be filtered through position sizing and thesis decay.
The journal will keep watchlists, data links, and thesis notes together so every idea can be reviewed, challenged, and retired when the facts change.
Stock Data Links
Core Watchlist
External links open live market pages. Prices shown on those sites may differ from your broker because of delay, currency, and data-source rules.
Research Notes
Journal Entries
Research Framework
A disciplined loop for every idea.
Each note should answer four questions: what cycle is changing, which company benefits, what data would confirm the thesis, and what evidence would force a reversal.
Cycle Signal
Company Wedge
Valuation Gap
Data Link
Position Logic
Exit Trigger
Founder
Garvin Guan
Garvin Guan is a non-bank financials analyst building Financial Cycle Research as a public research notebook for market cycles, financial platforms, and cross-market equity ideas.
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